The GBPUSD fell yesterday to the lowest level since June 29/June 30, 2021 when the low prices came in at 1.20509 and 1.20567. The low price yesterday reached 1.22602 just above that area. Traders leaned against the risk defining level (risk was defined and limited0 and pushed the price back higher. That area will continue to be a key barometer going forward. Stay above, and there is hope for further corrective probing to the upside. I spoke of that target in my post from last Friday HERE.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the post from Friday also spoke about getting above the double top from Friday's trade near 1.2379, and then the swing low (and old cycle low) from April 28 at 1.24107. Getting above those levels would be required for the buyers to start "winning".
Looking at yesterday's trade, the GBPUSD price did get above the Friday double top at 1.2379 (step 1), but failed on its run to the 1.24107 level (step 2). The high price yesterday reached 1.24052 (which was also near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week's high to last week's low at 1.24041).
The buyers could not get above those minimum target level. As a result, they continued to "not win". The sellers remained in control.
Today, the price has seen up and down price action within a fairly narrow trading range.
The high price in the GBPUSD today reestablished the aforementioned double top from last Thursday near 1.2379 (the high reached 1.2375 in the Asian session today). The low price today stalled near a swing low from Friday and yesterday on the hourly chart near 1.2300 him (see red numbered circles in the chart below). Needless to say that level at 1.2300 is also nice round number and natural support level.
What next?
The story remains largely the same.
On the topside, getting above 1.2379 and 1.24107 are still minimum targets if the buyers are to start to "win" a little more. The 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below) at 1.24527 (and moving lower) is also a upside target to get to and through. That is near the 50% of the move down from last week and also near the swing low from May 4 - increasing the levels/areas importance.
On the downside, moving below the 1.2300 level would increase the bearish bias. Move below that level and focus returns to the 1.22509 to 1.22567 area from the daily chart. Move below that level and the door opens up for more downside momentum.
The roadmap is drawn for the GBPUSD. Sellers are more in control, but there is key support below which gives the sellers some cause for pause. A battle is on.
