The NZDUSD moved up toward the high from November 2 on Friday and found early sellers against the level. The high on November 2 reached 0.59406. The high on Friday reached 0.59354 just short of that level.
Today, the price rotated lower at the open and was able to extende back below the brokenn 38.2% and swing area between 0.58667 to 0.5876. The low in the first bar today reached 0.5855 before rotating back to the upside and reaching to high from last week and a new high by less than 4 pips. Sellers leaned after completing the down and up lap.
What now?
The "double top" would need to be broken to next target the topside channel trend line at 0.5975 area. Get above, and the door opens more for the pair with the 50% of the move down from August 12 high (not shown) at 0.5989 as the next target.
If the sellers against the high exert more control, getting to and through the 38.2% retracement and swing area between 058667 and 0.58764 would be the targets.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below,
- The rising 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below) comes in at 0.59199.
- The 38.2% retracement of the day's trading range comes in at 0.59104.
- The 200 bar moving average (green line in the chart below) comes in at 0.59047 and
- The 50% midpoint of the day's range comes in at 0.5900.
All those targets would him need to be broken to increase the bearish bias and give the sellers more confidence that a short term top (double top) is in place. Absent that and the sellers are not winning. There will be the expectations of a new high with the topside targets from the 4-hour chart eyed.
