The USDCAD toyed with breaking its 100 hour moving average in the Asian and European sessions today (blue line in the chart above). There were a number of ticks on the hourly chart below moving average line, but momentum was limited on those small breaks, and the price bounced modestly higher. The high prices off the bounces, all, however, could only just enter the lower end of swing highs from Tuesday, and Wednesday at 1.30207.
Finally, the 100 hour moving average was broken with momentum after the weaker than expected Michigan consumer sentiment, and the price momentum increased. The USDCAD moved down toward the rising 200 hour moving average currently at 1.29197. The low price reached 1.29236 where early buyers against the moving average stalled the fall. The current prices back up to 1.2950.
What next?
Watch the 1.29607 level for short-term clues. That level was the swing low from Tuesday's trade. At the time, the price dipped just below a upward sloping trendline, but quickly rebounded back higher. Move back above that level would give the buyers against the 200 hour moving average more confidence. Conversely, staying below keeps the hopes of breaking the 200 hour moving average in play. The price last traded below the 200 hour moving average back on May 5.
Also, near the 200 hour moving average is swing levels between 1.2907 and 1.29181. Move below those levels and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 5 low comes in at 1.28944 and would be the next downside target.
Conversely a move above the 1.29607 level could see a repeat bounce back up toward the 100 hour moving average 1.3003 (call it 1.3000).
