The USDCAD moved to the highest level since the week of November 22, 2020 today with the price extending up to a high of 1.3036.
Looking at the weekly chart above, that high was able to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 2020 high at 1.30224. However, the price could not extend above the 200 week moving average target currently at 1.3039.
The high price today reached 1.3036. The current price is back down trading around the 1.3322 level after dipping to an intraday low of 1.29607.
From the weekly chart, there is some cause for pause against the key technical targets. The price would need to get and stay above those levels to give the buyers more control. Stay below, and despite the recent run higher (the pair is working on it's 7th straight week of gains), the sellers do have some say in the short term flows.
What would give sellers more confidence?
Drilling to the hourly chart, the USDCAD price decline from the high today did moved down toward - and through - a lower trendline. However, support buyers came in near that level and have pushed the price of the USDCAD back higher over the last couple hours back toward the 1.3022 weekly retracement level. Buyers are still in control.
Going forward, if the price could get below that trendline on the hourly chart now near 1.2379 (currently) and stay below that level, sellers would feel more comfortable that the resistance against the 200 week MA is "working". A move below the trendline, and traders will look toward 1.2950 followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last week's low at 1.29125. That level corresponded with the swing high going back to May 2 (that was broken yesterday) increasing the levels importance in the short term.
Absent those moves lower, and the USDCAD buyers remain in firm control with the 200 week moving average as the key upside target at 1.3039. Get above and the door opens for further upside momentum.
