The USDCHF is not done rising (at least for now).
At this time yesterday (see post from yesterday HERE), the pair was trading comfortably lower on the day, but then reversed higher erasing all the declines and closed higher for the 9th consecutive day (SEE post HERE). The closing level came in at 0.9787 yesterday. Traders will be watching that level as a short term risk level today.
In trading today, the current price is trading at 0.98229 after extending to a new session high in the current hourly bar up to 0.98346. That move took the price above the April and May 2020 swing highs between 0.9783 and 0.9801. The high price yesterday reached 0.9799 – respecting that swing area and the natural resistance at the 0.9800 level.
Today, the price action has seen trading above and below that 0.9800 level earlier in the day, but has extended higher over the last 2 hours of trading. The price rise has the USDCHF now trading at the highest level since March 25, 2020.
Looking at the daily chart above, the swing high in March 2020 reached 0.9899 (call it 0.9900). If the price can stay above the lower swing area between 0.9783 and 0.9801, the track toward 0.9900 would be the next hurdle to get to and through (after which, calls for parity will be heard).
What would hurt the bullish technical bias?
Obviously getting below the aforementioned swing area down to 0.9783 would be a negative tilt. That would also take the price into negative territory for the day and threatened the up streak (the USDCHF closed at 0.9787 yesterday).
Another key level on the downside through the FOMC would be the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.97525 (blue line in the hourly chart below). A move below that MA line would ultimately need to be broken - and stay broken - if the sellers are to take more control.
Of note, is the price dipped below that MA yesterday but the break was short lived. Back on April 21, the price action had a similar short-term and marginal dipped below the moving average only to bounce back and extend higher.
As a result, getting and staying below the 100 hour moving average would be an important bearish technical step. After that, the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.9685 would be another target to get to and through.
