The USDJPY has seen higher (or unchanged) prices for 13 consecutive days coming into today, but it looks like the string will come to an end as sellers have pushed the price lower today (the close from yesterday was at 128.88).
That move lower was not before reaching a new cycle high of 129.408. That rise took the price the highest level since April 2002. Back in 2002, for your guide, the cycle high reached 135.02 before starting the rotation down to 75.565 toward the end of 2011 (see monthly chart above).
Drilling to the hourly chart, the price yesterday moved above a topside trendline on its way to the high price in the Asian session at 129.40.
After breaking back below that trendline and retracing back up to test the underside of it, sellers leaned and the price has since moved lower.
What now?.
The swing low for the day extended below the 38.2% retracement of the last trend move to the upside (from the low from last Thursday). That retracement level comes in at 127.748 and the low reached 127.593 . That move lower also took the price below a swing low from yesterday's trade at the same level.
However, the price has since rebounded back above the 128.00 level and currently trades at 128.10.
Getting back below the 38.2% retracement and the low for the day with momentum would have traders looking toward the 50% level and the rising 100 hour moving average at 127.238 and 127.18 respectively.
Recall from last Thursday, the price of the USDJPY tried to move below the 100 hour moving average only to stall fairly quickly and restarted its move to the upside.
Drilling further to the 5minute chart below, the price of the USDJPY fell below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages (blue and green lines) in the Asian session, and stayed below the 200 bar moving average. That was a technical clue for the corrective flows to the downside today.
Of note, is that the price decline did stall near the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April 18 swing low at 127.563 (short-term support). However, the corrective high off of that low also stalled ahead of the falling 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below at 128.27 currently).
It would take a move back above the 100 bar moving average to tilt the intraday bias back to the upside. Absent that, and the short term bias remains more in the hands of the intraday sellers at least for today with the 50% retracement at 127.914 and the 61.8% retracement 127.563 as the intraday downside targets to get to and through. Fall below that level and the rising 100 hour moving average would become the focus.
