The US jobs report is due at 1230 GMT
February's headline print was rather dismal but historically, there tends to be blips in the data here every now and then. The key thing about the release today is that it comes at a period of time where there are questions being asked of the US economy. Another poor and disappointing print in March could just be where markets start to raise doubts about the overall health of US economic conditions.
The median estimate is expected to be a +177k release and anything along those lines should solidify that the February reading is more of an anomaly and that the state of the US labour market remains tight i.e. status quo. But more importantly, a healthy report will quash any doubts surrounding the US economy and we could potentially see risk perform better in the aftermath alongside the dollar.
For me, the other details should be the focal points of the release here, in particular the unemployment rate and wages data. With the Fed indicating a pause and expressing concerns about the inflation outlook, more positive wage growth could very well get them back on track for a rate hike in 2H 2019. So, that will be something to consider in the coming months as well when looking at this report as a whole.
Here are the other previews for you to digest ahead of the release later:
- March non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
- What's priced in for the Federal Reserve ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report
- US jobs report is due Friday - NFP preview (HSBC)
- US NFP jobs report due Friday - preview (Westpac)
- Goldman Sachs preview what to expect from the NFP report
- Another preview of what to expect from the NFP report (Nomura)
