Preliminary economic growth figures from the UK for the second quarter of 2018
I posted a (twofer) preview earlier (reminder, data due at 0830GMT)
headline results:
- expected 0.4% q/q, prev 0.2%
- expected 1.3% y/y, prev 1.2%
Via …
Scotiabank
- UK GDP growth is likely to land around 0.3-0.4% q/q on Friday. The same day fills in an important missing part of the puzzle by way of services data. That would still leave growth tracking just north of 1% y/y and back at soft trend growth that was last seen in 2016H1. Back then, the UK economy was already experiencing softer growth before the Brexit vote motivated currency depreciation. If the implications of currency weakness for growth and inflation have now worked their way through, then we're now settling in upon a path of soft trend growth that is probably at best around estimates of the noninflationary speed limit.
TD
- We don't look for UK GDP to have a substantial market impact, coming just one week after the last BoE rate decision and IR. Markets will be more focused on prospects for Q3 growth as well as the resumption of Brexit negotiations later this month.
