That GS post is here:
US jobs report due Friday - Goldman Sachs preview the Nonfarm Payroll for January
TD now, analysts cite "temporary Omicron fallout" in looking for a -200K headline, adding that we see downside risk to our -200k estimate.
- Several Fed officials have already made clear that they will discount weak data as temporary.
- Also, we see upside risk on average hourly earnings, with an already strong trend likely to be added to by temporary Omicron effects relating to the composition of payrolls and the length of the workweek. Our 0.6% m/m estimate for hourly earnings implies 5.3% y/y, up from 4.7% y/y in December.
- A weaker-than-expected NFP report would reinforce the recent USD selloff. It works through two channels: rates and risk. Risk sentiment would likely welcome easier financial conditions, especially if Omicron explains the growth weakness. That said, our dashboard shows the USD reaching oversold levels again so we use this recent pullback as a buying opportunity ahead of next month's Fed meeting.
