Canadian retail sales April 2022
  • March flash estimate +1.4%
  • February flash estimate was -0.5%
  • January reading was +3.2% (revised to +3.3%)
  • Ex autos +2.1% vs 0.0% expected
  • Prior ex autos +2.5%
  • Ex autos and gas +1.4% vs +2.4% prior
  • Sales up in 6 of 11 subsectors

The Canadian economy re-opened in March after lockdowns in Jan/Feb. The ongoing strength through the lockdowns and signs of further growth in March are positive. Canadians are riding high on a wave of home price appreciation but there is a big risk that some of that reverses.

Details:

  • Clothing +15.1%
  • Shoes +12.4%
  • Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers +5.6% vs +8.9% prior (sixth gain in seven months)
  • General merchandise stores -1.2%
  • New auto sales -4.6% vs +5.5% prior
  • E-commerce sales -23.1% vs -14.4% y/y prior

One worrisome sign is on autos, where sales of new vehicles were down 11.0% compared to Feb 2021; though we will have to wait until March to see if that was lockdown-induced or something more. Inventories are brutally tight and that could be a factor as well.

That ecommerce number doesn't bode well for Amazon.

Inflation is a bit of a factor as volumes were down 0.4% m/m in Feb. CAD is a touch stronger on the headlines but has been beaten up today on the broad USD bid.