- US December core PCE 4.9% vs 4.8% expected
- Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index 3.9% annualized versus 4.4% last month
- Initial Atlanta Fed GDP tracker for Q1 points to nil growth
- NZDUSD down for the 7th consecutive day
- Fed's Kashkari: Long end of the yield curve is signaling a period of modest inflation
- UMich final January consumer sentiment 67.2 vs 68.7 expected
- Fed's Kashkari says rates need to rise 'a little bit'
- US employment cost index for 4Q 1.0% vs 1.2% estimate
Markets:
- Gold down $8 to $1788
- WTI crude oil up 50-cents to $85.79
- US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 1.78%
- S&P 500 up 105 points, or 2.4%, to 4431
- JPY leads, NZD lags
I'm inclined to avoid attaching a fundamental narrative to any of today's price moves. It was a volatile month and it's the second-last trading day of the month so there are some cross currents.
The first hints of volatiltiy came in bonds as US 2-year yields fell to 1.17% from 1.23%. That gave buyers of risk trades a signal that a tighter Fed was priced in for now and the dip buying started. From there it took several twists in turns, including a late day drop to flat on the day. But in the final hour of US trading the risk trade roared, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.4%.
For its part, the FX market took the mood changes in stride. We're wrapping up the day largely unchanged across the board, particularly in the largest currencies.
The only real price action was in AUD and NZD as they broke some important support levels. Both bottomed early in New York but were only able to add 30 pips from there.
Gold slid for the third day but bounced from $1780, which was just below the January low.
What a ride of a week. Have a great weekend.
