- US Treasury says no major trading partners met criteria for currency manipulation
- US Sept consumer credit outstanding +9.06B vs +10B expected
- ECB's Nagel: Wage growth and decreasing labor supply will keep up pressure on inflation
- Fed's Bowman: I continue to expect we will need to raise Fed funds further
- Fed's Logan: All of us have been surprised by resilience of US economy
- US treasury auctions offer $48 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.701%.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate +2.1% vs 1.2% prior
- Fed's Waller: The labor market is getting close to average from before the pandemic
- October US Manheim used vehicle index -2.3% m/m
- Canada September trade balance 2.04B vs 1.00B estimate
- US Sept trade balance -61.5B vs -59.9B expected
- Fed's Goolsbee: So far we are on a good path on inflation, but not there yet
Markets:
- Gold down $9 to $1968
- WTI crude oil down $3.60 to $77.22
- US 10-year yields down 9.3 bps to 4.57%
- S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq gains 0.9% in eighth straight climb
- USD leads, AUD lags
Last week's trend in bonds returned as yields fell across the board and stayed under pressure for most of the day with the help of falling oil prices. That helped to boost stocks market and the Nasdaq is now on the longest winning streak since 2021. You would expect that to be coupled with US dollar weakness but that wasn't the case. The dollar was very strong through European trade and only began to fade in the second half of US trading, while still finishing comfortably higher.
Yields erased all of yesterday's advance to close near the recent lows. That took some of the life out of USD/JPY despite equity market gains. USD/JPY peaked at 150.69 before tracking 30 pips lower.
The euro was hit earlier with yet-another round of poor German data but after a trip to 1.0665, it erased the European declines to finish right at the big figure of 1.0700.
Cable hit stops down to 1.2263 but rebounded to 1.2300 latest.
The commodity currencies were harder hit as the market punished AUD on a dovish turn from the RBA that shouldn't have been a big surprise. That can after the rate hike, which was expected.
