- Goldman Sachs do not see imminent Fed rate cuts, but stocks will rise regardless
- Goldman Sachs expect Brent crude oil to US$84/bbl by December
- An IMF official says sees Japan as fully committed to flexible exchange rate regime
- IMF expects slowing China growth at 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025
- China April Caixin manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 51.0)
- China April 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (expected 50.3) Services 51.2 (exp 52.2)
- Australian March 2024 Private Sector Credit +0.3% m/m (expected +0.4%)
- Australian March 2024 Retail Sales -0.4% m/m (expected +0.2%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1063 (vs. estimate at 7.2459)
- New Zealand April business confidence 14.9% (prior 22.9%)
- Japan Prime Minister Kishida says he won't comment on FX intervention
- FOMC meet this week: "the most interesting news about this meeting will come on 22 May"
- Japan March Industrial production +3.8% m/m (expected +3.5%)
- Japan data - March unemployment rate 2.6% (expected 2.5%)
- Fed rate cut forecast moved to July, from June: "Fed has simply run into a brick wall"
- UK shop prices have risen at their slowest since December 2021
- Japan's Kanda says need to take appropriate actions on FX
- CBA moves its forecast for an RBA rate cut to November (from September)
- El Erian says the US economy and stocks have likely dodged a recession
- How to confirm Japanese intervention in yen (TL;DR is wait until the end of May!)
- ICYMI - ECB's Knot increasingly confident on falling inflation, June rate cut realistic
- UBS on the yen: "Looks like intervention", if it was its unlikely to have a lasting impact
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY drops again
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 30 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY retraced to nudge 157.00 briefly during the session. We had data from Japan today, but the focus was on comments from Kanda, vice-minister for international affairs at Japan's Ministry of Finance (the official who decides when to intervene). Kanda didn’t add much, with little in the way of substantive comments, and he still would not confirm intervention took place on Monday.
News flow otherwise was only light.
We did get plenty of data though. From China we had the two official (National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)) PMIs for April. Both of these fell from March but remained in expansion. Following these was the manufacturing PMI from Caixin/S&P Global, which improved from March. Taken together the three confirmed a continued mild recovery for China’s economy.
From Australia, the focus was on March retail sales, which fell from February and badly missed estimates. Both inflation and population growth is strong so a negative result on this was very poor indeed. While the USD has net gained across the board the AUD was a notable loser.
From New Zealand, ANZ’s business survey showed business confidence dropped to a seven-month low in April. Continued high interest rates and a slow economy are weighing on household spending and company profits.
