US May advance retail sales -0.3% vs +0.2% expected

• Prior was +0.9% (revised to +0.7%)
• Ex autos +0.5% vs +0.8% expected
• Prior ex autos +0.6% (revised to +0.4%)
• Control group 0.0% vs +0.5% expected
• Prior control group +1.0% (revised to +0.5%)
• Ex autos and gas +0.1% vs +1.0% prior

All the focus is on inflation lately but there will be increasing talk about consumer health as rates rise and if/when the economy heads into a recession.

From the Fed's perspective, it's not entirely bad that the US consumer is slowing down. Cooling demand means it has less work to do. Of course, this is just one number (though the revisions were also negative).

It's increasingly notable that retail sales aren't adjusted for inflation. Total sales were up 8.1% y/y but that's below the pace of inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term, so in real terms, sales are down -- and even moreso if you account for the largest share-of-wallet going to gasoline.

Notably:

• Auto sales down 3.5% m/m and 3.7% y/y
• Furniture -0.9% m/m
• Gasoline stations +4.0% m/m and +43.2% y/y
• Food service and drinking places +0.7% m/m and +17.5% y/y

Overall, I don't see signs of a big consumer retrenchment here but the automotive industry should be worried about a sharp retrenchment in sales, especially with borrowing rates continuing to surge.