UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: Japan PPI.
- Tuesday: UK Jobs data, German ZEW, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US CPI.
- Wednesday: Japan GDP, Australia Wage data, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI, US PPI, US Retail Sales, PBoC MLF.
- Thursday: Australia Jobs data, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand PPI.
- Friday: UK Retail Sales, Canada PPI, US Building Permits and Housing Starts.
Tuesday
The UK unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% in the three-month period to September and the employment change to contract by 198K. The average earnings including bonus are seen at 8.3% vs. 8.1% prior, while the average earnings excluding bonus are expected to remain unchanged at 7.8% vs. 7.8% prior.
There’s no consensus at time of writing for the US headline CPI data. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected to hold steady at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior. The Fedspeak has been leaning on the hawkish side since the last FOMC meeting and although the market expects the Fed to keep rates steady until the mid-2024, we might see another rate hike if the upcoming two CPI reports fall short of their expectations and show persistently elevated underlying inflation. The whole reaction function will need to be paired with the NFP report in December of course as another notable miss and increase in the unemployment rate will keep the Fed on the sidelines.
Wednesday
The Australian Wage price index for Q3 is expected to increase by 1.3% vs. 0.8% prior for the Q/Q reading and 3.9% vs. 3.6% prior for the Y/Y figure. The RBA recently hiked by 25 bps citing surprisingly persistent services inflation. The central bank is keeping the door open for further tightening as it left in the statement the line “whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable time frame will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks”.
The UK CPI Y/Y is expected to fall to 4.8% vs. 6.7% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.5% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 5.8% vs. 6.1% prior and the M/M figure at 0.4% vs. 0.5% prior. The BoE has kept rates steady for two consecutive meetings and it will be harder for them to do so at the next one as well if this week’s employment and inflation data beats expectations.
The US Retail Sales have been surprisingly hot in the past few months, but this time around the data is expected to show a decline of -0.1% M/M vs. 0.7% prior. Although, the data is unlikely to change the Fed’s stance, the central bank won’t be pleased with too hot figures.
Thursday
The Australian employment change is expected at 18K vs. 6.7K prior with the unemployment rate ticking higher to 3.7% vs. 3.6% prior. Although the labour market has been showing signs of cooling, it remains historically tight, and the RBA would like to see more softening.
The US Jobless Claims lately have been pointing to a softening labour market via lower job opportunities rather than more layoffs. In fact, Continuing Claims have been rising steadily while Initial Claims remained subdued around the 200-220K level. There’s no consensus at the time of writing for this week’s data, but as always it will be one of the most important releases.
