• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
  • The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.
  • The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
  • The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.
  • The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
  • The market now expects the first rate cut in September.


  • The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.
  • The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
  • The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
  • The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion.
  • The market expects the first cut in August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD bounced again on the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the major trendline where they will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to turn the trend around and start targeting the 0.64 resistance zone.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg lower into the support diverged with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a bigger reversal, and it might even end up being a double bottom with the major trendline as the target. In fact, the buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the major trendline if the price were to break above the neckline at 0.5933. The sellers, on the other hand, should pile in around these levels to position for a drop back into the support targeting a break below it.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price continues to print higher lows as it trades towards the neckline. This signals that the bullish trend is intact on this timeframe and buyers are pushing into a breakout. If the price were to break below the most recent higher low at 0.5995, then the bullish trend would be invalidated and the sellers will start to pile in more aggressively to push the pair into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report.