The Bank of Japan is expected to exit its negative interest rate policy today, after eight years. There is no set time for the statement, there never is, but past experience shows to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window.
The news flow on the pivot from the Bank of Japan has been relentless, with little push-back from the Bank. So, while there have been rumours of change going into nearly every meeting for the past two years, this time appears to be different. Expectations are for an end to negative rates, ETF purchases and YCC. Given the fickleness of the BOJ I'd put a 75% probability on the pivot today and a 25% probability of a rug-pull no change. The latest news flow is here:
- BOJ to end yield curve control and ETF purchases -- Nikkei
- BOJ to end NIRP and YCC, "a done deal" - here's what might be a dovish surprise
The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is also due today, and is taking a back seat to the events in Tokyo.
- Reserve Bank of Australia expected to keep its 4.35% cash rate unchanged until September
- The Reserve Bank of Australia March policy decision is due on the 19th - 'on hold' preview
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
