The USD was lower and the weakest of the major currencies today. The NZD is the strongest.


There was little in the way of econonmic data (well nothing). The weekly oil inventory data showed a larger than expected build in oil inventories although gasoline and distillates showed drawdowns. Oil price moved lower today helped by quiet geopolitical news out of Isreal and Iran. The warmongering subsided for the day.

There was some ECB officials (Centeno and Nagel) who spoke of a June cut. However, it had little impact on the EUR. HOwever, later in the day ECBs Lagarde did say that they watch exchange rates and it could be inflationary (text book stuff). Perhaps it was the quiet day, but that gave the buyers a reason to take the pair up to the swing area up to 1.0675 where sellers stalled the pair. However, that was good enough to take the price to a new high for the week (the high reached 1.0679 beofre rotating marginally to the downside). The price is trading at a1.0671 currently. Watch 1.0655 for potential support in the new trading day.

For the USDJPY, it fell in the US session as yields did move lower and the pair had willing sellers in the Asian and early US session ahead of the high from yesterday at 154.78. The high price reached 154.72 today. The fall, however, fell short of the rising 100 hour MA at 153.98. In the new day a move below it and then the 38.2% of the last trend move higher from Friday's low, at 153.94, is the minimum needed to show the sellers can wrestle back some control. Absent that, and the buyers are still in control Both Japans Kanda and Suzuki fired some shots across the bow with comments on the FX rate, but it was largely ignored by the markets. Nevertheless, as the price of the USDJPY moves toward 155.00, traders are increasingly wary of intervention. So be aware.

The biggest mover today was the NZDUSD which had a gain of 0.68% today. That rise snapped a 3-day decline and a 4 out of 5 day fall on risk-off flows. The move higher did take the pair up to test the falling 100-hour MA at 0.59259. The high price today reached 0.59244.

US stocks moved lower today. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq are now down 4 consecutive days. The final numbers showed:

  • Dow industrial average down -0.12%
  • S&P index, -0.58%
  • Nasdaq index, -1.15%

The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.99% despite lower yields today.

In the USD debt market, yields did find a bid. The 20-year bond auction was met with solid buying (-2.5 basis point tail).

  • 2 year 4.938%, -2.5 basis points
  • 5-year 4.616%, -6.5 basis points
  • 10-year 4.589%, -6.8 basis points
  • 30 year 4.704%, -5.3 basis points

In other markets;

  • Crude oil fell sharply as tension eased in the middle east. The price is down -$2.54 or -2.93% at $82.82
  • Gold is selling off at the end of the day and is now trading down -$22.10 or -0.93% at $2360.60
  • Bitcoin fell below $60000 to a low of $59672, but has recovered to $61053. The all time high for Bitcoin was reached at $73794 on March 11. Since the, the price has moved down -19.14% from the high to the low reached today.