- US October non-farm payrolls +150K vs +180K expected
- US October ISM services 51.8 vs 53.0 expected
- Canada October employment +17.5K vs +22.5K expected
- Fed's Bostic: Policy is likely in the right place given the economic outlook
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 496 vs 504 prior
- BOE's Haskel: Estimate of 6% equilibrium is the upper limit for me
- Fed's Barkin: It was welcome to see lessening pressure in the jobs data
- US October S&P Global final services PMI 50.6 vs 50.9 prelim
- Canadian October S&P Global services PMI 46.6 vs 47.8 prior
- Hezbollah leader: Gaza operation was 100% planned in Gaza
- BOE's Pill: We held rates because economic restraint needs to be maintained
- Gold up $7 to $1992
- US 10-year yields down 9.3 bps to 4.57%
- WTI crude oil down $1.64 to $80.83
- S&P 500 up 1.0%
- NZD leads, USD lags
This week marked a turn of the calendar and a turn in markets. Treasury yields plunged and the dollar sank along with them. Meanwhile, it was the best week for equities in a year.
Non-farm payrolls and ISM services were both on the weak side and that helped the trend to extend, leading to one-month highs in cable, EUR/USD and AUD/USD. The moves were limited to around 40 pips immediately after non-farm payrolls but later extended as revisions in the report and other details led the market to price in 100 bps in Fed cuts next year.
Clearly momentum was part of the equation as USD/JPY fell through 150.00 and continued to 149.17, finishing near the lows.
CAD lagged somewhat along with the US dollar as Canadian employment softened and oil prices cooled. Hezbollah's leaders spoke for the first time and indicated there won't be a second front in the war, taking the geopolitical premium out of oil. Still it was the second day of sharp decline in USD/CAD.
Overall, it was a lively week and it's now a good time to take two days and reflect. Remember that US clocks go back an hour on the weekend.