- China January - March Exports +8.4% y/y, Imports +0.2% y/y (yuan terms)
- Shares of Chinese property developer Sunac have reopened for trade after a year. Down 38%.
- AUD/USD pops a little higher on the solid March jobs report
- Australia: Jobs change +53.0K (expected +20K) Unemployment rate 3.5% (expected 3.6%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8658 (vs. estimate at 6.8672)
- China wants to start building lunar base infrastructure in 5 years - using moon resources
- Goldman Sachs continues to see 35% chance of US recession( well below the 65% consensus)
- The Japanese government has lifted an evacuation order for residents of Hokkaido
- ICYMI - RBA Dep Gov Bullock spoke Wednesday - says April pause not driven by bank stress
- Japan's government issued an evacuation order after North Korea missile launch (J alert)
- North Korea has launched another ballistic missile
- Goldman Sachs no longer expect a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike in June
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japanese inflation likely to slow, maintaining easing
- White House Brainard is seeing some signs of pulling back on credit - could help the Fed
- UBS bullish gold, forecast XAU/USD as high as US$2200
- South Korea data: Import prices fall fastest since December 2020, Export since August 2020
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Apr: US CPI lower but Fed officials remain cautious
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 13 April 2023
- US equities hit session lows into the close. Tech struggles
AUD/USD popped higher on the March jobs report, topping out on the session circa 0.6720 and its not much below there as I update. The data indicated jobs added in March beat estimates (53K vs +20k expected), as did the unemployment rate (3.5% vs. 3.6% expected), even while the participation rate climbed. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock spoke yesterday about the Bank’s concerns over how 10 consecutive cash rate hikes would impact the employment market. The data today will go some way towards easing those worries and, at the margin, add to a case for an RBA rate hike in May. This is still subject to the next official inflation report. Q1 CPI is due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, April 26. Monthly CPI reports have suggested the CPI has peaked, but the quarterly CPI is a better quality, more comprehensive, indicator
News of impact was light. North Korea launched an ICBM. Japan issued an emergency warning for the island prefecture of Hokkaido in response, initially assessing that the missile could land on or near the island.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke, reiterating that it is the Bank’s view that inflation in Japan will fall below the 2% target after the middle of this. Ueda also said, yet again, that the BOJ will continue with monetary easing until price stability is achieved in a stable and sustainable way. To further drive home the easing point he said that the risk of inflation falling below its target is greater than that of any problems that would be caused by a CPI overshoot above target.
As I post we are still awaiting trade data for March from China. We’ve had remarks from a Customs official warning the country's trade is facing difficulties ahead due to geopolitics and slack demand. We did, however, get trade info for exports and imports in the first quarter (January – March 2023) which showed resilience.
Apart from the Australian dollar already mentioned above, major FX has traded in small ranges only.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.1%
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.01%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.3%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.14%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.2%
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AUD/USD the star of the show today, 5 minute candles:
