Headlines:
- ECB's Rehn: We will revise lower economic projections next month
- ECB's Panetta: The natural way forward would be to start raising rates
- ECB's Knot: We will have a large balance sheet for some time to come
- ECB's Knot: Inflation expectations are at the upper limit of being well-anchored
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 20 May -1.2% vs -11.0% prior
- Germany June GfK consumer confidence -26.0 vs -25.5 expected
- Germany Q1 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q prelim
- France May consumer confidence 86 vs 89 expected
Markets:
- NZD leads, AUD lags on the day
- European equities slightly lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%
- US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 2.73%
- Gold down 0.6% to $1,855.76
- WTI crude up 1.2% to $111.08
The session started off with a slightly better risk mood but that didn't last as equities retreated and risk aversion starts to take hold once again now. The mood is worsening as we get into North American trading with US futures marked lower and European indices also turning earlier gains into losses now.
S&P 500 futures are down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%, and Dow futures down 0.5%. They were up by that same amount when we did the handover from Asia to Europe.
Bonds are staying bid as well as yields continue to drop, with 10-year Treasury yields down another 3 bps to 2.73%.
In FX, the dollar is finding some buyers after its recent weakness with EUR/USD falling from 1.0710 to 1.0655 while GBP/USD dropped from 1.2560 to 1.2480 on the session. The greenback also advanced against the commodity currencies with USD/CAD rising from 1.2820 to 1.2875 while AUD/USD slumped from 0.7100 to 0.7050 in European trading.
The New Zealand dollar remains the lead gainer but has erased its nearly 1% advance against the dollar, falling from 0.6510 to 0.6450 currently. The kiwi is buoyed by a more hawkish RBNZ rate hike earlier in the day here.
Easy come, easy go. That seems to be the tale with any risk recovery as of late and today might be yet another case in point.
