JP Morgan is watching US jobs market as a sign the economy is entering a recession

According to a widely accepted definition, the US was in recession in H1, given the data on Thursday:

• US Q2 advance GDP -0.9% vs +0.5% expected

The 'but' is that the US does not use the widely accepted definition:

• US admin officals are scrambling to say "its not a recession!!!"

JP Morgan notes:

• Despite a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth for 2Q, we do not believe the US slipped into recession earlier this year given nonfarm payroll growth averaged 375K per month during 2Q

JPM add, though:

• The recent large increase in initial jobless claims raises our level of concern about a recession taking hold
• We believe that a further step upward—to an average 275K level this quarter—would be a strong signal that the US has entered recession

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For something completely different, but US-related nonetheless, previous Prez Trump hit the golf course on Thursday: