The US inflation data is due Tuesday, 13 September 2022 at 1230 GMT:
This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
The times in the left-most column are GMT.
The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.
Earlier:
- US CPI for August - preview
- US CPI report coming up on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 - preview
- CPI trading preview: Focus on the core or the headline?
- BofA now sees 75 bps Fed hike, expects headlines CPI to fall in August
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Snippet via Credit Suiise preview:
- We expect headline inflation to fall 0.2% MoM. which would be the first decline in headline CPI in two years. A sharp drop in gasoline prices should make up all of the deflation this month. Headline YoY inflation likely slowed for the second consecutive month to 7.9%.
- Ex food and energy, we expect core inflation to slow to 0.2%. This would push up the YoY reading slightly to 6.0% from 5.9%. We expect a decline in core goods prices to drive most of the slowdown.
- Wholesale prices for used vehicles have come down in the past few months, suggesting retail prices likely declined, and this fall likely outweighed increases in new car prices. Additionally, the mix of weak apparel retail sales and high inventory-to-sales ratios has created downward pressure on retail prices.
- Core services inflation should stay strong, especially in housing.
- However, prices for travel services should decline further, as industry data for airfare, hotels, and car rental all registered decreases.
- Services inflation ex housing and travel likely remains elevated given strong wage growth.
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What it means for the FOMC:
- Results in-line with our forecast would be slightly below current consensus expectations, but probably not enough to shift Fed hawkishness given recently better-than-expected ISM and employment data. Fed officials have been open-minded about either a 50bp or a 75bp rate increase, and recent press reports point to a higher likelihood of 75bps unless inflation surprises to the downside substantially With the markets almost pricing in a full 75bp hike, the Fed is likely reluctant to surprise on the dovish side.
