On the daily chart below for the Russell 2000, we can see that after falling again into the 1723 support, the price bounced and pulled back to the red long period moving average where we found sellers. This rangebound price action has been going on for 2 months now as the market remains uncertain on what’s next amid goldilocks, recessionary and inflationary signals.
The economic data lately has been confusing as on one hand it points to a strong labour market as we could see from the hot NFP report last Friday, and on the other hand it shows cracks as seen yesterday with the Jobless Claims. The disinflationary trend is also ongoing, but showing signs of slowing, but wage inflation and consumer inflation expectations are ticking up. So, the market at the moment is caught in this kind of limbo.
Russell 2000 technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely the range between the 1723 support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as resistance. This is the worst type of market as traders get chopped out very often on the ups and downs. The best strategy would be to just sit out and wait for the market to breakout on either side supported by a fundamental development before taking new positions.
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the short term price action has formed a descending triangle. The price can break on either side, but generally the momentum increases afterwards, so one can take advantage of the move. We can also see the spike up due to the CPI report and then the selloff due to the big miss in Jobless Claims. This is the kind of market we are in now…