- US initial jobless claims 260K vs. 259K estimate
- US international trade balance for June $-79.6 billion vs. $-80.1 billion estimate
- Canada June trade balance +5.05B vs +4.80B expected
- Canada June building permits -1.5% vs -1.5% expected
- BOE's Bailey: There's some evidence that supply chain difficulties are easing
- Fed's Mester: We are not in a recession now but recession rates have increased
- Fed's Mester: I would pencil in going a bit above 4% in Fed funds
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 3Q growth 1.4% vs 1.3% last
- BOE raises bank rate by 50 bps to 1.75%, as expected
- BOE's Bailey: UK forecast to enter recession later in the year
Markets:
- Gold up $28 to $1793
- US 10-year yields down 8.5 bps to 2.66%
- WTI crude oil down $2.36 to $88.30
- S&P 500 down 3 points to 4151
- EUR leads, CAD lags
The US dollar was generally stronger ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Treasury yields gave back some recent gains and that set a tone for dollar selling as well.
The Fed's Mester continued the pushback against lower rates but the comments were similar to other officials and having less of an effect. The euro was generally flat through Asia and into European trade but steadily clibed to 1.0250 from 1.1060 when New York arrived. That reversed some of the recent losses and put it back in the middle of the recent range.
Cable was a big focus on the day after the BOE hiked rates by 50 bps. The algo-driven pop on the headline was quickly wiped out (and much) more as the BOE forecase a 5 quarter recession starting in Q4. The quick 125 pip move found buyers though as the dollar weakened broadly and cable still managed to finish up 25 pips on the day.
NZD and AUD were both moderately positive on further positive gains in tech stocks. The Nasdaq closed at the highest since May 5 as the bulls keep the faith ahead of NFP.
The loonie was the laggard but only lost a bit of ground against the US dollar as questions were raised about data that's driving oil lower.