- US initial jobless claims 231K vs 220K estimate
- Philadelphia Fed November manufacturing index -5.9 vs -9.0 expected
- US October import prices -0.8% vs -0.3% expected
- US November NAHB housing market index 34 vs 40 expected
- Fed's Mester: I am expecting growth to slow below trend
- Fed's Mester: Whether further hikes are needed depends on the economy
- US October industrial production -0.6% vs -0.3% expected
- Feds Cook: Risk are two sided. I believe that a soft landing is possible
- Japan's Kishida to meet China's Xi on Thursday
- Three Fed officials see case for 'considerable Fed balance sheet decline' - report
- NY Fed's Nordstrom: Foreigners bolstering treasury holdings adjusted for market valuations
- KC Fed November manufacturing index -3 vs -8 prior
- BOE's Ramsden: Latest projections indicate mon pol to be restrictive for extended period
- EIA weekly US natural gas inventories +60 bcf vs +40 bcf expected
- Canada October housing starts 274.7K vs 252.9K expected
Markets:
- WTI crude down $3.83 to $72.83
- US 10-year yields down 8.8 bps to 4.45%
- S&P 500 flat
- Gold up $22 to $1980
- JPY leads, AUD lags
The market is focused on economic data right now and that was abundantly clear with the release of initial jobless claims. The numbers ticked up moderately, the dollar sold off and yields fell.
USD/JPY quickly dropped to 150.65 from 151.10 on the data and later continued down to 150.30 before rebounding back to 150.76 later. The US dollar was particularly soft into the London fix, hitting the lows of the day across the board. That highlights a low-volume, low-conviction trading day with many market participants looking to catch their breath and assess the landscape.
The euro finished flat on the day but rose as high as 1.0895 from 1.0850 before completing the round trip, all in US trading. Cable followed a similar path up to 1.2455 from 1.2400 before falling back to 1.2411.
The commodity currencies were all softer on the day and one of the factors that weighed was the poor outcome of the Biden-Xi summit. There was some optimism built into the antipodeans around global growth into the meeting but it yielded few results and may have only underscored how fractured the relationship has become.
In the energy market, oil slumped again as it fell to the lowest since July on breaks of $80 in brent and $75 in WTI. This is set to be fourth week in a row of declines. Natural gas was flat on the day until a surprise weekly build in the US on more signs of a rise in production. The upshot is that the drop in energy is deflationary, which should help the Fed meet its goals sooner.
In crypto, the volatility continues as bitcoin gave up nearly all of yesterday's gain in a 5% decline. The waiting game continues for an ETF announcement.
