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US nonfarm payroll to add 550K jobs in November

The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are for:
  • Non Farm Payroll to add 550K jobs. That comes after a rise of 531K in October. That gain was above the 425K estimate. Job gains in September came in at 312K and August it was at 483K
  • ADP nonfarm employment change came in at 534K on Wednesday.  Last month ADP showed a gain of 570K which was relatively close to the 531K reported by the BLS.
  • Goods producing jobs last month rose by 108,000. 
  • Service producing jobs increased by 496,000
  • Government jobs fell by -73,000
  • The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5% from 4.6% last month. The unemployment rate pre-pandemic was around 3.5% and 4.4% in March 2020 before spiking higher to 14.7% in April
  • average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 0.4% versus 0.4% last month. Year on year earnings are expected to rise by 5.0% versus 4.9% last month
  • initial jobs claims during the survey week came in at 268K which was lower than the 290K last month. 
  • Manufacturing payrolls came in at 60K last month. The ADP report showed a gain of 50K this month
  • average workweek is expected to remain steady at 34.7
  • The U6 underemployment rate is expected at 8.4% versus 8.3% last month
The details of the ADP report showed:
Goods Producing jobs:
  • Construction +52K 
  • Manufacturing+50K
  • Natural resources and mining +7K
Service producing jobs showed
  • Leisure and hospitality +136K
  • Trade and transportation +78K
  • Education/health services +55K
  • Information +10K
  • Financial activities +13K
  • Professional business services +110K
  • Other services +22K
From last months BLS jobs report:
Goods producing jobs:
  • construction +44K
  • Manufacturing, +60K
  • Mining, +4K
Service producing jobs:
  • leisure and hospitality, +164K
  • trade transportation +54K
  • education and health services, +64K
  • information, +10K
  • financial activities, +21K
  • professional business services, +100K
  • other services plus 33K
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Thu 2 Dec 2021 18:00:45 GMT

USDCHF moves up and down and back up (off the 200 day MA)

200 day MA stalled the fall today The USDCHF has been toying on the downside, with the 200 day MA over the last three trading days.   ON Tuesday the 200 day MA was was broken, on two separate occasions only to rocket higher and then tumble back lower back to the 200 day MA near the close.

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USDCHF moves up and down and back up (off the 200 day MA)


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_10-57-42.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 18:00:45 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0


200 day MA stalled the fall today The USDCHF has been toying on the downside, with the 200 day MA over the last three trading days.   ON Tuesday the 200 day MA was was broken, on two separate occasions only to rocket higher and then tumble back lower back to the 200 day MA near the close.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 17:37:02 GMT

Gauteng covid cases rise to 8280 from 6168

What's happening at the epicentre of the covid outbreak The latest data from the South African province at the centre of the covid outbreak are out and the news isn't good with daily cases hitting 8280.

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Gauteng covid cases rise to 8280 from 6168


https://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211201/covid-variant.png Adam Button
Thu 2 Dec 2021 17:37:02 GMT
Author: Adam Button
Category: News
0
What's happening at the epicentre of the covid outbreak The latest data from the South African province at the centre of the covid outbreak are out and the news isn't good with daily cases hitting 8280.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:59:51 GMT

Richmond Fed Barkin: Long-term inflation expectations are always a concern


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180410/fed-barkin.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:59:51 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Barkin is a voting member in 2021

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:49:22 GMT

European equity and sees close lower for the day

Major European indices are closing the day with most down over 1% in the European debt market, yields are also lower in the benchmark 10 year sector. Francis 10 year notes move back below the parity level and trades at -0.03%:

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European equity and sees close lower for the day


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/snag_45ebed78.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:49:22 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Major European indices are closing the day with most down over 1% in the European debt market, yields are also lower in the benchmark 10 year sector. Francis 10 year notes move back below the parity level and trades at -0.03%:

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:43:10 GMT

Fed's Daly: Older workers/women with children will be able to return to the labor market eventually


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20201022/mary-c-daly.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:43:10 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
San Francisco Fed's Daly also speaking

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:36:39 GMT

Fed's Bostic: We've seen a pretty robust recovery in employment/GDP

Atlanta Fed president Bostic Bostic is a voting member on the FOMC in 2021. So he will have a say on whether the Fed should increase the taper at the December meeting.  His comments about getting the taper over sooner rather than later suggests the speeding above that taper process.

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Fed's Bostic: We've seen a pretty robust recovery in employment/GDP


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20180323/fed-bostic.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:36:39 GMT
Category: Central Banks
0
Atlanta Fed president Bostic Bostic is a voting member on the FOMC in 2021. So he will have a say on whether the Fed should increase the taper at the December meeting.  His comments about getting the taper over sooner rather than later suggests the speeding above that taper process.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:27:49 GMT

EURUSD cracks to a new session low and moves below the 100 hour MA

100 hour MA broken at 1.13112 The EURUSD has cracked to a new session low and in the process has moved back below its 100 hour moving average at 1.13112. Earlier today, that moving average was tested and found support buyers.  A move back below tilt the bias more to the downside. 

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EURUSD cracks to a new session low and moves below the 100 hour MA


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_9-25-49.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:27:49 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
100 hour MA broken at 1.13112 The EURUSD has cracked to a new session low and in the process has moved back below its 100 hour moving average at 1.13112. Earlier today, that moving average was tested and found support buyers.  A move back below tilt the bias more to the downside. 

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:06:44 GMT

US to sell $54B 3 year, $36B 10 year, and $22B 30 year bonds next week

Bond auctions to test investor demand in a rising rate environment The U.S. Treasury has announced that next week they will auction off: The auctions will test investor demand across the yield curve in the rising rate environment tilt that the Fed Chair announced this week. 

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US to sell $54B 3 year, $36B 10 year, and $22B 30 year bonds next week


Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:06:44 GMT
Category: News
0
Bond auctions to test investor demand in a rising rate environment The U.S. Treasury has announced that next week they will auction off: The auctions will test investor demand across the yield curve in the rising rate environment tilt that the Fed Chair announced this week. 

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:01:38 GMT

USDCAD tests high. Backs off

Highs over the last three days have formed a ceiling The USDCAD moved up to test the highs from Tuesday and yesterday, and for the 3rd day backed off. The high reached 1.27364 which was just above the high from Tuesday at 1.28362. Yesterday, the high stalled at 1.28288 - 8 or so pips short of the high.  

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USDCAD tests high. Backs off


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_8-42-10.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 16:01:38 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Highs over the last three days have formed a ceiling The USDCAD moved up to test the highs from Tuesday and yesterday, and for the 3rd day backed off. The high reached 1.27364 which was just above the high from Tuesday at 1.28362. Yesterday, the high stalled at 1.28288 - 8 or so pips short of the high.  

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 15:52:34 GMT

3

The 2nd omicron case reported in Minnesota

Well the case count has now doubled.... The 2nd omicron case has been reported in Minnesota.   The headline reminds me of when the Wall Street Journal (and other publications) would report a new bitcoin ATM as if it was a huge deal.

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The 2nd omicron case reported in Minnesota


Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 15:52:34 GMT
Category: News
3
Well the case count has now doubled.... The 2nd omicron case has been reported in Minnesota.   The headline reminds me of when the Wall Street Journal (and other publications) would report a new bitcoin ATM as if it was a huge deal.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 2 Dec 2021 15:10:04 GMT

More oil news: No plan to alter US SPR release

Russia's Novak comments as well The OPEC+ great to keep the production plan intact (increase production by 400k BPD per month) at least for the time period.  

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More oil news: No plan to alter US SPR release


Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 15:10:04 GMT
Category: News
0
Russia's Novak comments as well The OPEC+ great to keep the production plan intact (increase production by 400k BPD per month) at least for the time period.  

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 15:05:34 GMT

GBPUSD remains contained by 200 hour MA

200 hour MA at 1.33357 The GBPUSD is higher on the day after and up and down trading day yesterday saw the pair close near the lows for the day. Today, the pair was able to extend above its 100 hour moving average currently at 1.3314 and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-November high at 1.33151.

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GBPUSD remains contained by 200 hour MA


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_8-01-52.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 15:05:34 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
200 hour MA at 1.33357 The GBPUSD is higher on the day after and up and down trading day yesterday saw the pair close near the lows for the day. Today, the pair was able to extend above its 100 hour moving average currently at 1.3314 and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-November high at 1.33151.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:41:53 GMT

US stocks positive in the early session trading

Dow industrial average leads. NASDAQ lacks The early buying is in contrast to selling to right before the opening in the futures. Go figure. Zoom shares are not forecasting a return to shut down as the sink to a 52 week low at $195.71. The high price for the year reached $451. Shares are down over 45% on the yearApple shares are down 2.5% after reports that sales were slowing due to supply constraints. Apple trade near $170 early in this week. It is currently trading at $160.56. Demand is outstripping supply due to the chip shortage.

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US stocks positive in the early session trading


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_7-42-23.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:41:53 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Dow industrial average leads. NASDAQ lacks The early buying is in contrast to selling to right before the opening in the futures. Go figure. Zoom shares are not forecasting a return to shut down as the sink to a 52 week low at $195.71. The high price for the year reached $451. Shares are down over 45% on the yearApple shares are down 2.5% after reports that sales were slowing due to supply constraints. Apple trade near $170 early in this week. It is currently trading at $160.56. Demand is outstripping supply due to the chip shortage.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:37:06 GMT

USDJPY retraces earlier gains after test of 100 hour moving average stalls the rally

Price remains below the 100 hour moving average for the fifth consecutive day The USDJPY moved higher in the Asian session and into the early European session, with the high price reaching 113.33.

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USDJPY retraces earlier gains after test of 100 hour moving average stalls the rally


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_7-32-09.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:37:06 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Price remains below the 100 hour moving average for the fifth consecutive day The USDJPY moved higher in the Asian session and into the early European session, with the high price reaching 113.33.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:25:57 GMT

US shares trade mixed in premarket trading ahead of the open

Dow higher. S&P near flat. NASDAQ lower The premarket levels are lower from earlier levels (trending more to the downside ahead of the opening).  

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US shares trade mixed in premarket trading ahead of the open


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_7-26-44.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:25:57 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
Dow higher. S&P near flat. NASDAQ lower The premarket levels are lower from earlier levels (trending more to the downside ahead of the opening).  

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:20:42 GMT

OPEC+ draft statement: Production plan to continue but may adjust plans if the mkt changes

Highlights of OPEC+ draft statement. - Group agrees to go ahead with production adjustment plan - May adjust production plans if the market changes The next meeting is planned for January 4.

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OPEC+ draft statement: Production plan to continue but may adjust plans if the mkt changes


Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:20:42 GMT
Category: News
0
Highlights of OPEC+ draft statement. - Group agrees to go ahead with production adjustment plan - May adjust production plans if the market changes The next meeting is planned for January 4.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:12:43 GMT

Treas Sec Yellen: Hopefully pandemic will not completely stifle economic activity

Reuters headlines from Treasury Secretary Yellen - hopefully pandemic will not completely stifle economic activity - US stimulus at start of pandemic helped fuel very strong recovery A look at the US stock market in premarket trading shows the 

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Treas Sec Yellen: Hopefully pandemic will not completely stifle economic activity


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20190617/yellen.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:12:43 GMT
Category: News
0
Reuters headlines from Treasury Secretary Yellen - hopefully pandemic will not completely stifle economic activity - US stimulus at start of pandemic helped fuel very strong recovery A look at the US stock market in premarket trading shows the 

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:00:57 GMT

OPEC+ agrees to go ahead with the planned January oil output rise of 400K

Production increases to remain steady Oil futures have extend losses with the price currently trading around $63.83. (now below $63).  The next targets come in at $61.76 which are the lows going back to May and August followed by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 2020 low at $60.17.

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OPEC+ agrees to go ahead with the planned January oil output rise of 400K


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/snag_4556de3a.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 14:00:57 GMT
Category: News
0
Production increases to remain steady Oil futures have extend losses with the price currently trading around $63.83. (now below $63).  The next targets come in at $61.76 which are the lows going back to May and August followed by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 2020 low at $60.17.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:54:17 GMT

Amena Bakr: No mention on what action from OPEC+ should take

Tweets from Amena Bakr. Amena Bakr, Deputy Bureau Chief & Chief Opec Correspondent  tweets: @energyintel Crude oil is trading just above $65 currently.

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Amena Bakr: No mention on what action from OPEC+ should take


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/snag_454a0f2d.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:54:17 GMT
Category: News
0
Tweets from Amena Bakr. Amena Bakr, Deputy Bureau Chief & Chief Opec Correspondent  tweets: @energyintel Crude oil is trading just above $65 currently.

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:49:25 GMT

The heartbeat of the EURUSD is steady. No spikes.

The 100 hour MA holds support (MA is rising). The heartbeat of the EURUSD remains steady with no spikes. Trading yesterday saw up and down (EKG like) price action. Today that pattern has continued.

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The heartbeat of the EURUSD is steady. No spikes.


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/snag_4545ff23.png Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:49:25 GMT
Category: Technical Analysis
0
The 100 hour MA holds support (MA is rising). The heartbeat of the EURUSD remains steady with no spikes. Trading yesterday saw up and down (EKG like) price action. Today that pattern has continued.

Asset 24 View More
Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:30:19 GMT

US weekly initial jobless claims 222k vs 240K estimate

US weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims data - US initial jobs claims 222K versus 240K estimate. Prior revised to 194K from 199K (influenced by the holiday and seasonals) For the full report

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US weekly initial jobless claims 222k vs 240K estimate


//az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20211202/2021-12-02_6-35-12.jpg Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:30:19 GMT
Category: News
0
US weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims data - US initial jobs claims 222K versus 240K estimate. Prior revised to 194K from 199K (influenced by the holiday and seasonals) For the full report

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Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:13:19 GMT

No recommendations from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)

This according to sources by EnergyIntel There are no recommendations from the joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) according to an EnergyIntel report (citing sources). 

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No recommendations from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)


Greg Michalowski
Thu 2 Dec 2021 13:13:19 GMT
Category: News
0
This according to sources by EnergyIntel There are no recommendations from the joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) according to an EnergyIntel report (citing sources). 

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