- China has halted approvals for new GDR sales, worried re selling pressure on stockmarket
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers says Australian banks are well capitalised
- ICYMI - Goldman Sachs boosts 2023 China GDP forecast to 6.0% from 5.5%
- China's electricity consumption +11% y/y in February
- The Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin was published today - some interesting items
- Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says the Bank has enacted an effective, sustainable policy
- China February new home prices +0.3% m/m (prior flat at 0%) & -1.2% y/y
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9149 (vs. estimate at 6.9173)
- USD/JPY up a big figure - Credit Suisse moves to bolster liquidity
- PBoC is expected to set the USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9173 - Reuters estimate
- EUR, AUD, US equity index futures, all higher on the CS SNB news
- Credit Suisse group takes steps to improve liquidity
- AUD up very small on the blockbuster jobs report (beat on jobs added & unemployment rate)
- Australia Feb Employment change +64.6K (+48.5K expected) & Jobless rate 3.5% (3.6%)
- Australian March Consumer Inflation expectations 5.0% (prior 5.1%)
- Japan January Machinery Orders +9.5% m/m (expected +1.8%)
- Japan February Exports +6.5% y/y (expected +7.1%) & Imports +8.3% y/y (expected +12.2%)
- NZ finmin Robertson says despite the GDP data the New Zealand economy remains resilient
- Reports that the Bank of England was holding emergency meetings Wednesday re CS
- Analysts at ASB in New Zealand trim expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike
- ICYMI: Goldman Sachs cut US GDP forecast citing the banking crisis impact on credit growth
- NZD marked lower on the worse than expected economic contraction data from New Zealand
- New Zealand GDP for Q4 2022 (sa) -0.6% q/q (expected -0.2%)
- G7 opposes lowering the oil price cap on Russian crude oil from US$60 /bbl
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Credit Suisse under fire
- Rebound. US stocks rebound off the lows. The NASDAQ closes higher on the day.
- JP Morgan forecast a 25bp rate hike from the FOMC next week, another 25bp in May, and done
- Barclays forecast for the European Central Bank meeting today is a +25bp rate hike
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 16 March 2023
Credit Suisse moved to take action to strengthen liquidity. It outlined the steps including that it will borrow up to fifty billion Swiss francs from the Swiss National Bank . The news has eased fear of collapse of the bank, which is deemed a globally systemic important financial institution and is thus “too big to fail” (and plenty of folks add that its troubles run too deep to rescue). EUR/USD and equity markets popped a little higher on the news but there has been not much follow through to note.
While banking system risk is the focus of global markets there were other items on the agenda here during the session.
New Zealand Q4 GDP came in much, much worse than expected. At -0.6% q/q vs. the -0.2% expected (consensus) by analysts and +0.7% in Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecasts. While Q4 2022 is very stale news, its an indication of what the NZ economy is going through now and in the short term ahead. NZD/USD dropped on the data, bounced back and has since subsided again back close to its earlier low. Expectations for the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike are being revised down.
Remaining with data, Japanese trade data improved, as did machine order data. USD/JPY fell to circa 132.50 but subsequently bounced back a big figure to approach 133.50 again. Its back under 133.00 as I post.
Further data today showed the Australian jobs market bouncing back strongly in February. Jobs growth surprised to the topside while the unemployment rate surprised to the downside. AUD/USD responded by adding just a few points and has since dribbled back down to be little net changed on the session.
The WSJ reported that the G7 opposes lowering the oil price cap on Russian crude oil from US$60 /bbl
Asian equity markets were all weak:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.2%
China’s Shanghai Composite -0.5%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -1.6%
South Korea’s KOSPI -0.3%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -1.5%