- Oil heads up - Saudi Arabia's state oil giant Aramco will be setting OSP's
- IMF warns of uncertainty over BOJ policy moves "amid a rise in inflation"
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March) 49.5 (vs. expected 50.3)
- Australia March Exports +4% m/m (prior -3%) & Imports +2% m/m (prior -9)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9054 (vs. estimate at 6.9061)
- New Zealand - ANZ Commodity Price index for April -1.7% m/m (prior +1.3%)
- Goldman Sachs FOMC recap: "A pause is the baseline"
- A whole bunch of markets are retracing to cover 'gaps' as Asia market liquidity returns
- The Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
- Bill Ackman says "regional banking system is at risk".
- Banking crisis - Reports firming of likely US government deposit guarantees above $250K
- US bank Pacwest - advisers engaged to mull on alternatives, including potential sale
- NZ data - March building permits +7% m/m (expected -0.3%
- Its getting hot in herre. Gold spike up, oil spike down
- ICYMI - TSMC in talks to invest up to US$11 bn in German fabrication plant
- Biden's eco advisers say protracted US default could result in loss of 8.3mn jobs
- Uh-oh: SEC is not considering short selling ban as worries over bank soundness hurt shares
- CIBC on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): "This is a hawkish pause"
- US regional bank PacWest is considering strategic options, including a sale
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 3 May: Damn the Fed hike. USD/rates move lower after hike
- RBNZ'S Hawkesby says the underlying economy has strength , NZ banks are well positioned
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 4 May 2023
News out of the US late in the afternoon (US Eastern time) that US regional bank PacWest was considering strategic options, including a sale, sent its share price plunging. After hours liquidity in markets is very poor and this was exacerbated by a Japanese holiday. There was ‘contagion’ into other markets with falls seen in equity index futures and oil, for example. Gold and BTC found bids. AUD, NZD and CAD all lost ground against the USD during this also, while yen rose.
Oil prices spiked lower and then bounced. As liquidity returned to markets retrace moves were seen, sending oil higher. AUD, NZD, CAD have all bounced strongly from their lows.
USD/JPY, though, remains heavy, barely above its session low as I post.
Data flow was light. China’s privately surveyed manufacturing PMI from Caixin/S&P Global dropped into contraction. Australia’s trade surplus, for March, rose well above February’s and the central estimate. Helped along by surging exports to China, up 28.5% m/m to a record monthly high of AUD19bn.
