RBNZ news (read from the bottom up for the chronology)
- The next RBNZ rate hike is only 5 weeks away
- NZD down slightly in response to the RBNZ rate hike decision
- RBNZ 50bp rate hike, as expected. Takes the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5%
Other:
- China H1 2022 trade figures: imports are up 4.8% y/y and exports +13.2% y/y (yuan terms)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7282 (vs. estimate at 6.7288)
- Bank of Korea raises its key rate by 50bps
- German dep fin min says Germany will be off Russian coal by August 1, oil in December
- Shanghai officially reports higher new COVID cases, but none outside quarantine
- Think tanks says next UK Prime Minister should address the country's economic decline
- Reuters Tankan - Manufacturing index unchanged from previous month, non-Manufacturing up
- New Zealand food price index for June +1.2% m/m (prior +0.7%)
- US CPI data for June is a huge market focus. Preview (data due Wednesday, 13 July 2022)
- The US Treasury is seeking comment on the risks and opportunities posed by cryptocurrency
- Legendary Apple product designer Jony Ive will no longer work with AAPL
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike decision coming today, +50bp the consensus estimate
- The IMF has cut its forecast for US 2022 GDP growth to 2.3% (prior 2.9%)
- Twitter has sued Elon Musk in court to complete the acquisition at $54.20 a share
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar gives some back after hitting euro parity
- Oil inventory survey shows a build vs. small draw that was expected
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 13 July 2022
- US stocks gets spooked by the ghost of tomorrow's CPI. Major indices close nearer the lows
- A fake CPI 'leak' is doing the rounds and might be impacting markets
USD/JPY climbed back above 137 during the session with little in the way of fresh news nor data. USD/JPY lows were circa 136.70 and the climb topped out just over 137.20. The 50 point move didn’t trigger any comments out of Japanese officials about the rise being too rapid.
EUR/USD didn’t trouble parity again, in fact it didn’t trouble traders much at all, sitting in a very tight range around 1.0030.
Cable and AUD/USD added on small points.
As did NZD/USD until the RBNZ announced its (widely expected) 0.5% rate hike, taking New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2 to 2.5%. NZD/USD dropped a little to lows circa 0.6110 (just under). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision was accompanied by its ‘Monetary Policy Review’ (which is not nearly as comprehensive as a Monetary Policy Statement, we’ll get one of those at the next meeting, announcement due August 18). The Review said, in part:
The Committee is comfortable that the projected path of the OCR outlined in the recent May Monetary Policy Statement remains broadly consistent with achieving its primary inflation and employment objectives - without causing unnecessary instability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate. Once aggregate supply and demand are more in balance, the OCR can then return to a lower, more neutral, level.
That is, no change to the OCR path was flagged.
There was no press conference scheduled, again we’ll get one of those following the RBNZ August decision.
Shanghai COVID cases rose again, but new cases outside quarantine were officially zero – a positive sign.
Oil dropped in price but recovered all that loss.
ICYMI - US CPI data is due today, Wednesday, 13 July 2022 at 1230 GMT (8.30am NY time).
There was a fake leak on Tuesday US time, markets are a minefield even with this garbage!
NZD/USD:
