- Biden has prepared initial package of sanctions against Russia
- Magnitude 5.6 earthquake New Zealand - near town of Blenheim
- US weekend oil news - Upcoming federal oil and gas lease sales will be delayed
- BNZ see New Zealand government bonds’ inclusion in the WGBI likely to benefit NZD.
- NZ PM Ardern flags an easing of restrictions once COVID-19 wave peaks
- China's January new home prices - rise for the first time m/m since September
- White House says Biden will discuss Ukraine with G7 leaders on Thursday
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.3401 (vs. estimate at 6.3390)
- People's Bank of China leave China's loan prime rates unchanged
- (UNCONFIRMED) Report that Putin has ordered an invasion of Ukraine
- 'Risk' catches a bid on the reports of proposed Putin-Biden summit
- Reports crossing that Biden and Putin will meet
- More on the imagery showing new Russian deployments of armor, troops near Ukraine
- Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI (preliminary) PMI for February 52.9 (prior 55.4)
- China Securities Journal says PBoC has the tools for further stimulus
- South Korea first 20 days of February exports surge yet again
- Canada changes risk assessment - advises avoiding non essential travel to Belarus
- Macron and Putin held a second hour-long phone call
- Vitol CEO says he sees oil prices at $100+ for 'a prolonged period'
- US Globex (overnight futures) has reopened for the week 0 'risk' down, oil up
- Australia has fully reopened its international borders to vaccinated travellers
- Satellite imagery shows new activity & deployments related to Russia-Ukraine developments
- Australian flash PMIs for February: Manufacturing 57.6 (up from 55.1 in January)
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 21 February 2022
- US President Biden held a US National Security Council meeting
- OPEC & oil comments out of UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq
- The US warns Russia may attack Ukraine (again)
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 21 February 2022
- Video: Currency trades aren't just for FX traders. How to hedge
- Widespread fighting reported along the Donbas border
- Johnson and Scholz say allies must punish Russia if Ukraine's sovereignty damaged further
- Biden: US has reason to think Putin has already made decision
- Will this all be about 'government-controlled' Ukraine?
It was an eventful news day (and weekend) with the focus of course on Ukraine.
Over the weekend US intel said Russia was on the brink of an attack. This was the basis of a report during Asia time that turned out to be merely a rehash.
Bigger news came of French president Macron speaking (phone call) with Biden and Putin, and of a second call with Putin (for over an hour). Macron has set up a potential Biden-Putin summit meeting. One of the caveats is provided there is no Russian invasion of Ukraine. We’ll see. More in the bullets above.
The ‘summit’ news gave a lift to risk trades. These had fallen earlier in the session, US equity index futures dropping on the reopen for the week but surging into positive territory on the summit proposal.
Major FX surged against the USD. EUR, NZD, AUD, GBP all higher, with JPY and CHF up also against the dollar. EUR/USD (for example) rallied from under 1.1320 to above 1.1360.
Oil and gold lost ground on the summit news.
Of minor note only, Japanese (flash) PMIs for February fell sharply in the only data release of note.
On the central bank front we had the People’s Bank of China leave the 1- and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at the setting today. Both had seen small rate cuts in January.
Bitcoin dropped under $39K over the weekend.
Note: its a US and Canadian holiday today, Monday 21 February 2022. Globex traded Sunday evening US time but will close midday Monday (for equity - others vary, see below). Reopening will be later on Monday (local time). See pic below:
