• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
  • Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
  • The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second consecutive month.
  • The US Jobless Claims beat expectations last week.
  • The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase.
  • The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations although the labour market details improved.
  • The market now sees basically a 50/50 chance of a cut in June.


  • The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged dropping the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.
  • The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
  • The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
  • The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion.
  • The market expects the first cut in August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD broke through the key support zone around the 0.6050 level and extended the selloff into new lows. The sellers are now targeting the 0.5870 support zone and will look to sell eventual rallies. The buyers will need the price to rise back above the 0.6050 support turned resistance to change the bias from bearish to bullish.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, if we were to get a bigger pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally back into the 0.6050 resistance zone.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we can draw another trendline using the recent swing highs, which gives us another layer of confluence around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the major trendline. This will be a strong resistance area where the sellers will likely pile in to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above it to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting new highs.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Job Openings and tomorrow the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude with the US NFP report.