- BOJ policy statement due on Friday, 28 October 2022 - preview
- China's yuan, in trade-weighted terms, has fallen to a one year low
- European Central Bank meet Thursday, 27 October 2022, +75bp hike expected
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1570 (vs. estimate at 7.1563)
- ICYMI - China's Wuhan locked down one of its central districts following COVID outbreak
- Australia: Export prices -3.6% q/q (prior +10.1%) & Import prices +3.0% q/q (+4.3%)
- Deutsche Bank says Fed Funds will probably need to go to at least 5%
- UK, Accenture survey: Over 2/3 of people to cut festive season spending this year
- AUD traders - Westpac is forecasting a +50bp rate hike from the RBA next week (November 1)
- ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday 27 October 2022, +75bp the (unanimous) expectation
- Japan media report the government's stimulus spending being considered is over 29tln yen
- UK media is reporting that noob PM Sunak is reconsidering tax hikes
- Goldman Sachs forecast EUR/USD to 0.97 in 3 months, risks skewed to more downside
- Brazil's central bank leaves its benchmark rate unchanged for the second month in a row
- China's Cosco given German government approval to buy a 24.9% stake in Hamburg terminal
- RBNZ Governor Orr says monetary policy will be reviewed in the middle of November
- RBNZ Governor Orr says inflation is still absolutely too high
- US adminstration in reworking plans for the Russia oil price cap
- More from New Zealand's Deputy PM Robertson - most economists believe inflation has topped
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 27 October 2022
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Canada delivers a dovish surprise
- New Zealand's Deputy PM Robertson says economy is at a strong starting point
- Nasdaq and S&P lower. Dow holds on to a small gain.
- Meta beats on revenue but EPS is a miss. Lowers expectations for revenue expectations
The European Central Bank meeting is today. The Bloomberg survey shows near unanimity in forecasts for a +75bp rate hike. All but 2 economists of 51 that Bloomberg surveyed expect a 75bps hike. This will take the deposit rate to 1.5%. Market pricing is nailing +75bp too.
EUR/USD has dribbled a little lower on the session here in Asia. The USD has shown a little strength more widely, but the moves are tiny. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are little net changed on the session.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meet next week, Tuesday November 1. Yesterday we had higher than expected inflation reported (data for Q3). I posted yesterday that two of Australia’s ‘bigfour’ banks left their forecasts unchanged for a +25bp rate hike next Tuesday.
I also posted a preview from National Australia Bank, another of the big four, who said:
As I post, the latest I have seen from NAB is that they are tipping a +25bp as ‘more likely’ than +50.
However, Westpac (also one of the four) have embraced the ‘high and wide’ CPI result, tipping +50bp:
It was not the headline increase in the CPI that worries us but the broad based strength in core inflation. This is why we think the RBA has more work to do than we had anticipated so we are now looking for a 50bps increase in the Cash Rate in November.
While on central banks, on Friday we get the Bank of Japan. No change from them is expected.
The Chinese yuan lost ground today:
