- RBA monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 4 October 2022 - preview
- Federal Reserve speakers on the schedule for Monday 3 October 2022
- European Central Bank speakers coming up on Monday 03 October 2022
- More on Goldman Sachs cutting its 2023 oil price forecasts
- Oil - OPEC+ meeting: ANZ see a significant chance of a cut as large as 1mn barrels/day
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says sharp FX moves are undesirable
- Reminder - China is on holidays today (& all this week) - no yuan, CNY, fixing today
- BOJ official says firms' CPI estimates for the coming 5 years have hit 2%, 1st time ever
- Japan September Manufacturing PMI (final) 50.8 (prior 51.5)
- Large manufacturers sentiment in Japan has declined for 3 consecutive quarters
- Australia: Melbourne Institute Inflation monthly inflation 0.5% m/m in Sept. (prior -0.5%)
- BOJ September. meeting summary: Core inflation likely to increase more slowly in 2023
- Fed whisperer Timiraos tweeted on how the Fed might be tightening policy too aggressively
- Asia update - it's a (partial) holiday in Australia today, and Chinese markets are closed
- Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final, September) 53.5 (prior 53.8)
- Oil has jumped at the Monday open - OPEC+ considering output cut of more 1mn barrels/day
- RBNZ shadow board says should raise the official cash rate (OCR) by another 50bp this week
- GBP traders heads up - UK PM Truss will delay the vote on cutting the 45p rate of tax
- ICYMI - UK rating outlook cut by S&P
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 03 October 2022
- NVDA technical analysis
- There are some serious rumours doing the rounds about a major bank failure
- Newsquawk week ahead preview: US ISM, RBNZ, RBA, OPEC+, US and Canadian jobs reports
- Twitter stock analysis during its trial with Elon Musk
- Oh what a week in the forex markets! It is time to prepare for the new week.Are you ready?
- October forex seasonals: It was a volatile September, what comes next?
- Good riddance September. A traditional weak month, ends at the lows for major indices..
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Commodity currencies, bonds and stocks finish weak
The potential for an OPEC+ output cut of around 1 million barrels per day (I’ve seen some chatter of up to 3mn bbls, which seems overblown) was cited as reasoning behind the gap higher for oil upon the week’s opening of futures trade on Sunday evening in the US.
The oil price has pretty much held onto the gap gain, with only a minor retrace:
‘Commodity’ FX gained a tailwind from the oil price move. USD/CAD fell below 1.3750 at one stage. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have both risen.
EUR/USD is up a few points while cable has lost a few points, back under 1.1125 and its straddling there as I update.
USD/JPY and USD/CHF are reasonably steady. We had the ‘summary’ of the Bank of Japan September meeting published today and it makes interesting reading (see bullets above). The Summary of Opinions aired thoughts on rising inflation, and said it’ll continue and perhaps even overshoot topside. The Summary also said that when the time comes the Bank will need to communicate policy changes clearly to markets. The Bank has made such a remark before, but in conjunction with the notes on rising inflation those looking for a BOJ move away from ultra-easy policy have something to point to today. Of course, in my post, I made the point it may well just be the Bank adding its two cents (or yen) worth of efforts trying to stem the decline of the yen.
Regional equities are mixed.
Chinese markets were closed today, and will remain closed all of this week for the Golden Week holidays. This sapped some interest from markets in the timezone today.