- Moody's says the US economy can absorb the impact of China's slower growth
- Goldman Sachs forecast that the BoE will raise rates by another 50 basis points in August
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaking soon (230am US Eastern Time), Bostic later
- Australia May Retail Sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.1%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2208 (vs. estimate at 7.2540)
- New Zealand data - June business confidence and activity both improved from May
- The offshore yuan is weak heading into the PBOC fixing today - but it's a long way to 7.33
- OPEC will once again ban news organisations from attending its meeting (July 5 and 6)
- Binance ’s EUR fiat deposit partner, Paysafe, will no longer provide services to exchange
- Japan May Retail Sales +5.7% y/y (expected +5.4%)
- Yellen to travel to China - racap of her national security comment earlier
- After Australia's better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike
- Goldman Sachs tip the Russell 2000 to shoot way ahead of S&P500 in the next 12 months
- Yellen says re China, US will protect its national security, even if it comes with costs
- ECB's Centeno says very close to the time monetary policy may pause
- MUFG: AUD near-term setback after yesterday's CPI data, ahead of the RBA meeting next week
- Goldman Sachs’ Oppenheimer says high rates will cap global risk assets from now
- S&P: surprisingly strong demand to keep rates higher for longer in most advanced countries
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 28 Jun:Key central bankers share hawkish bias at ECB conf.
- Federal Reserve says US banks pass stress tests - capital ratios well above requirement
- ICYMI - Deutsche Bank cut both its 2023 and 2024 Brent crude price forecasts
- US equities finish flat as tech leads. Micron jumps after the bell
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 29 June 2023
The most important time of the session was once again the People’s Bank of China’s yuan reference rate setting. Expectations for the mid-rate were around 7.2540. The PBOC shrugged those off with a much stronger CNY, setting USD/CNY at 7.2208. This sent a panicked shock wave of selling through USD/CNH which fell right of the bed, to back under 1.2350. The thing to bear in mind though is that while the People’s Bank of China doesn’t want the yuan fall to be rapid they are not upset by it losing ground. I said as much here, and added, after the strong (for the yuan) mid-rate, that all the Bank was doing was setting up a nice USD/CNH buy-the dip:
And here we are, USD/CNH back up again:
On the data front today we had Australian retail sales for May. These climbed much more than expected, pointing to a still-resilient consumer. AUD/USD had ticked up a few points prior to the data release and added only a few more after. Its since retraced to be not a lot changed on the session. AUD/USD though, traded pretty much in the same pattern as most FX against the USD. AUD remains on a strong attached to the yuan: weaker yuan, weaker AUD & vice versa.
USD/JPY traded in a small range circa 144.35. We haven’t had comments out of Japanese authorities today.
