The weekly claims data at the seasonals adjusted to account for Covid influences fading away, but seasonals still reflecting the volatility over the last few years. In short, the data is back to normal, and so should the seasonals. Nevertheless, because of the adjustments to last year, the initial jobless claims moved from below 200 K for most of the year to above and trending more to the upside.

This is the current adjusted chart of the claims. Note the upward slope indicative of more jobless claims over time, and raw numbers being above 200K.

Initial claims
Initial claims adjusted for new seasonals

In contrast, below is the chart of claims from last week before the new seasonals. Note how the levels are below 200 K, and the slope is sideways indicating steady data.

Initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims last week

Tomorrow, the US jobs data will be released from the BLS with expectations of a gain of 239K versus 311K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 3.6% unchanged from last month. Does the data today necessarily impact the data tomorrow? Not really except to say that perhaps the tilt is more to the downside given the recent trend.

Despite the weaker jobs data, US yields initially moved lower, but then rebounded. The two year yield is up seven basis points at 3.833%. The 10 year yield is up 1.8 basis points to 3.305%. Despite the gains today, the two year yield is still down -19.6 basis points for the week. The 10 year yield is down -16.8 basis points.

Although the US stock market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday, the US bond market will open for an abbreviated session (until 12 noon).

In the US stock market today, the major indices close higher. The S&P and the NASDAQ index snapped two day losing streaks. The Dow industrial average eat out a small gain of 0.01%. The S&P index rose 0.36%, and the NASDAQ index was 0.76%.

In the forex, the CHF is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies with the EUR and USD also mostly higher. The losers - or weakest of the major currencies, were the NZD and the AUD with the NZD nearly doubling the AUD. .

The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

A snapshot of other markets shows:

  • Spot gold $-13.58 or -0.67% at $2007.11.
  • Spot silver is up five cents or 0.19% at $24.94
  • WTI crude oil is down $0.12 at $80.49
  • Bitcoin is trading just above the $28,000 level at $28,054.