OIL:
- More on the Biden oil reserve release, up to 180m barrels over several months
- International Energy Agency calls an emergency ministerial meeting to discuss oil supply
- ICYMI - US President Biden is said to be preparing a massive release of oil stockpiles
- Biden admin is considering a 'massive' oil release to fight inflation
- US President Biden will speak on Thursday, on how he'll be reducing gasoline prices
- IEA and OPEC+ spat ... Opec removes IEA as an information source
- Heads up for the OPEC+ meeting today - on hold expected
Other:
- Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno says closely watching forex movements
- China March PMIs. Manufacturing 49.5 (expected 49.9) & Services 48.4 (expected 53.2)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.3482 (vs. estimate at 6.3467)
- Australia February Private Sector Credit +0.6% m/m (expected 0.7%)
- Australia February Building Permits +43.5% m/m (expected +10.0%)
- JP Morgan shift from expecting 25bp hikes in May and June to 50bps in each
- Japan data - February preliminary Industrial production +0.1% m/m, missing estimates
- Not just the Fed - will the RBNZ hike by 25 or 50bps at their next policy meeting ...
- AUD - scope seen for an extended rally
- UK - business confidence biggest m/m drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic
- South Korea's Finance Minister says considering intervention
- Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will recommence on Friday 1 April
- UK GCHQ spy chief on Russia's Ukraine war: Low troop morale, incompetence, insubordination
- The US is considering easing restrictions on Chevron re Venezuela
- Biden is considering allowing higher ethanol blends of gasoline - to help ease pump prices
- Signs the US is preparing to restrict purchases of Russian oil by other countries
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 31 March 2022
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Hot German inflation helps to life euro
- Cracks appear in the Biden administration over sanctions on cyber-security firm
US President Biden will speak on Thursday 31 March on measures to reduce the price of gasoline. A 180m drawdown from the US oil reserve is one policy option. That bombshell news item was out during the Asian timezone.
Initially the news was Biden was tossing around a 1 mn barrel a day draw that would extend out for months. Given the consumption of oil in the US is around 20 mn barrels a day adding in 1 mn to supply would make a difference to price at the margin (lower). As the news was elaborated on, the 180 mn barrel draw was mentioned. At 1 mn a day this is 6 months of supply from the Strategic Reserve. I posted on some of the numbers,
- that the SPR currently holds circa 560 mn barrels, so a 180 mn draw over 6 months is easily achievable.
Also, note that the royalty on drilling on Federal leases is 12.5%, this is a potential source of refill for the SPR.
This was the big news during the session and it saw a sharp drop for oil prices.
Its the OPEC+ meeting today also (no change to current policy is expected).
(This chart is from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link)
The other item of note was the official (National Bureau of Statistics) PMIs out of China for March. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing dropped back under the 50 line, that is, into contraction. The coronavirus outbreak in China during March was the worst since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020. Associated lockdowns, that are ongoing for some cities, weighed on economic activity and its this that has been reflected in the PMIs for the month.
While oil markets were volatile, FX markets were much more subdued than they have been earlier this week.
USD/JPY topped out on the session just over 122.40 and is, as I post, is back around (above) 122.00. EUR/USD has ticked up a little. Cable is off a touch. AUD and NZD are not too much changed.
USD/CAD has moved up with that lower oil price eyed by CAD traders.
