- Heads up for European Central Bank's Nagel speaking Tuesday
- Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks Tuesday. Also Williams, Jefferson, Barkin
- Bank of England's Lombardelli (next Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy) speaks on Tuesday
- China reports air passenger numbers +37.7% y/y in Q1 2024
- China's Statistics bureau says its expects a mild recovery in consumer inflation
- China: March Industrial output +4.5%y/y (expected +5.4%) Retail sales +3.1% (4.5% exp)
- China Q1 2024 GDP growth 5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%)
- Chinese state banks are in the spot market seen selling dollars for CNY
- China March new house prices -0.3% m/m (prior also -0.3%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1028 (vs. estimate at 7.2475)
- Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi - Prepared to take all measures on fx
- Fed's Daly getting with the jargon now, says doesn't know if r* has risen
- Fed's Daly says inflation bumps along the way are not particularly surpsising
- S Korean Vice Finance Minister says will take immediate bold measures against excess moves
- Japan finance minister Suzuki is closely watching FX moves
- Iran's foreign minister says willing to exercise restraint
- 3 Chinese asset managers have received initial approval to offer BTC & ETH backed ETFs
- Australia weekly consumer confidence survey +1.6 points on the week to 83.5
- ICYMI - S&P rating agency has downgraded another Chinese property developer
- China's Foreign Minister expresses support in phone call with Iranian counterpart
- Stop with the USD/JPY Numberwang intervention level guesses - do this instead
- Fed rate cut expectations - Société Générale expect no interest rate cut in 2024
- More on the wave of CTA selling forecast by Goldman Sachs
- Bank of Japan to place less emphasis on inflation rate when setting monetary policy
- JP Morgan says earnings beats don't mean prices higher this season
- Research shows impact of geopolitical events "have tended to lead to short-sharp selloffs"
- Goldman Sachs warns trend following hedge funds could sell up to US$42bn over next month
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 15 Apr: Stocks lower/yields w/ geopolitical &strong growth
- US stocks close with sharp declines. Higher yields/geopolitical risk weighs on the indices
- Iran says it will respond to a a possible Israeli retaliatory attack 'within seconds'
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 16 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
The US dollar added to its gains from Monday here during Tuesday trade:
- AUD/USD to a 5 month low
- EUR/USD to a 5 month low
- GBP/USD to a 5 month low
- NZD/USD is at its lowest since November
- JPY is, of course, still around 34 year lows
Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President, spoke at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. In brief, Daly said there is no urgency to cut US interest rates, with the economy and labour market strong, and inflation still above the Fed's 2% target. She warned on the dangers of a near term rate cut:
- "The worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency is not required".
The People’s Bank of China set its USD/CNY reference rate (the mid-point at which the onshore yuan is permitted to trade) at its weakest (for CNY) since March 1. The weakness in the yuan that followed prompted intervention to support the yuan, conducted through Chinese State Banks selling USD/CNY.
From China today we had Q1 economic growth data and also March 2024 economic activity data:
- GDP growth beat expectations at 5.3% y/y (vs. expected +5.0%) and +1.6% q/q (expected 1.4%)
- Industrial production and retail sales missed estimates, but the unemployment rate dropped by a tenth of a percent (see bullets above for the data on these and more).
USD/CNH jumped on the weaker yuan setting but dropped as USD/CNY was hit with USD selling intervention:
Regional equities fell heavily.
