- More on Head of US CENTCOM flying into Tel Aviv - "ironclad support for Israel."
- Federal Reserve speakers Tuesday include Williams, Bowman, Barkin, and Kashkari
- European Central Bank's Centeno and de Guindos speak Tuesday
- Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) +11.1% m/m in September (expected +3.2%)
- Senior US general flies into Israel on an unannounced trip
- China's sovereign fund CIC buying shares in big banks - indicator to market bottom?
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says he has no comment on factors determining weak yen
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Dhingra speaks Tuesday
- RBNZ's own inflation measure for Q3 2023 is +5.2% y/y (vs. prior +5.7%)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing on Tuesday to meet CCP boss Xi Jinping
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1796 (vs. estimate at 7.3038)
- "Wall Street icon" Howard Marks recommends selling equities buying high yield bonds (BUT!)
- AUD/USD higher after surprisingly hawkish RBA minutes
- RBA minutes show the Bank debated a 25bp rate hike vs. holding steady
- US President Biden will travel to Israel on Wednesday
- ANZ New Zealand expect RBNZ rate hike in February 2024, previously expected November 2023
- Country Garden's entire offshore debt to be in default if Tuesday payment not made
- Israel President Netanyahu and US Sec State Blinken have been in talks for 7 hours
- US Retail Sales data for September is the important data point Tuesday - what to expect
- Canada September CPI data due Tuesday, 17 October 2023 - preview
- Australian data - ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index 76.4 (prior 80.1)
- Cointelegraph apologizes again for posting "unverified" Bitcoin ETF approval news
- New Zealand Q3 CPI +1.8% q/q (+2% expected)
- UBS bullish everything! See positive returns across cash, bonds and equities to mid-2024.
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Oct:Yields higher as tensions not so high in Israel
- CNN reports that a US Marine rapid response force is heading to waters off Israel's coast
- Blackrock turn tactically neutral long-term Treasuries from underweight
- Terror attack - Two people shot dead in Belgian capital Brussels
- Fed's Harker says again that interest rate hikes are likely over, sees inflation ebbing
- Solid gains for major indices to start the trading week.
- What are the technicals saying for the EURUSD and GBPUSD going into the new trading day.
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 17 October 2023
The New Zealand dollar lost ground after the September quarter inflation data came in at levels under expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have recently paused their aggressive series of rate hikes and the data today indicate further rate hikes are less likely, or at least will come later than expected. Indeed, ANZ in NZ revised their forecast for a November 2023 RBNZ rate hike to February 2024.
A few hours later we had the Australian dollar make an opposite move, trading higher after surprisingly hawkish minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia October meeting. The Statement at the time of the meeting was not hawkish but these minutes were. The minutes have prompted a nudge higher for the probability of a November meeting rate hike and even another in December. I’d suggest two more hikes this year is a very unlikely outcome but the November meeting is still in play until we get the results of the Q3 CPI data due from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on October 25.
After this we had more inflation data out of New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's own preferred inflation measure, the sectoral factor model. This fell back for the first time since at least September 2021:
To Middle East events, the news out of the region that we received during the session here was on the encouraging side, including:
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States and Israel have agreed to work out ways to let international assistance come into the blockaded Gaza Strip – this came after a more than 7-hour meeting between Blinken and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu
- US President Biden will fly into Israel on Wednesday
- US CENTCOM commander General Kurilla flew into Tel Aviv, saying "I'm here to ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself, particularly focused on avoiding other parties expanding the conflict"
While encouraging, keep an eye out for the beginning of ground moves into Gaza to flush out the Hamas terrorists. This will raise the temperature again.
AUD/NZD sharply higher during the session:
